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ICBC Financial Market Daily Review-October 13, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
International News
1. U.S. producer prices rose in September as the price of gasoline recorded its biggest gain in more than two years amid hurricane-related production disruptions at oil refineries in Texas. The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand rose 0.4 percent also lifted by an increase in the cost of services. Wholesale gasoline prices soared 10.9 percent in September after increasing 9.5 percent in August. The increase was the largest since May 2015 and accounted for two-thirds of the 0.7 percent rise in the price of goods. Other data on Thursday showed applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a more than one-month low last week as the boost to claims in Texas and Florida from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma continued to unwind.

2. JPMorgan Chase & Co and Citigroup Inc on Thursday said they had set aside more money for credit card lending losses in the third quarter, stoking concerns about consumer indebtedness and overshadowing profits that topped analyst estimates. Provisions for credit losses across JPMorgan rose 14 percent, with the bank attributing much of that to its credit card business, and 15 percent at Citi in the quarter compared to a year ago. Both banks said that the increases were a normal part of the credit cycle and did not point to evidence of consumers under stress, but that explanation did not reassure analysts.

3. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday stressed the central bank's resolve to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy, even as its U.S. and European counterparts begin to dial back their massive, crisis-mode monetary stimulus. Kuroda offered an upbeat view of Japan's economy, saying it was expanding moderately with rising incomes leading to higher corporate and household spending. Kuroda also mentioned subdued price and wage growth despite economic recovery. He voiced confidence that stronger economic growth, a narrowing output gap and a tightening labour market would eventually drive up inflation.

4. Fed needs to mount a clear defense of its 2 percent inflation target or risk losing credibility, and possibly triggering a recession, if it continues raising rates until the pace of price increases strengthens, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday. "If you are going to have an inflation target you should defend it. If you say you are going to hit the inflation target then you should try to hit it and maintain credibility," Bullard said in an interview with Reuters. A recent drop in the Fed's preferred measure of inflation means "we more or less lost all the progress that we made the last two years" toward the 2 percent goal, Bullard said. Continuing to raise interest rates in that environment "can send a signal to markets that the inflation target is not that important."

Domestic News
5. China's central state-owned enterprises saw total profits increase 18.4 percent annually to CNY1.11048 trillion in the first three quarters of this year, extending growth since last quarter, representing the highest level of growth in history, the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) said.

6. State Administration for Industry and Commerce (SAIC) will support Xiong'an New Area to strengthen trademark protection and other intellectual property rights in a statement. According to the law, "China Xiong'an" and "Xiong'an" will be protected in the trademark registration work.

7. The U.S. Commerce Department announced last week that it would postpone issuing its preliminary determination in an anti-dumping duty probe into imports of aluminum foil from China, as it needs more time to analyze "China's non-market economy status". Commerce Ministry Spokesman Gao Feng said the so called "non-market economy status" was used in domestic law by certain countries during the Cold War period.

8. The top Chinese steel-making city of Tangshan has ordered mills to cut output a month earlier than expected to meet tough 2017 air quality targets, according to a notice released by the municipal government and reviewed by Reuters.

II. Market Overview
FX
1. Global Market
The dollar was poised to narrowly ward off a fifth straight day of losses against a basket of currencies on Thursday, as investors looked ahead to inflation data on Friday that may provide more clues on the next U.S. interest rate hike. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was up 0.06 percent at 93.074. Meanwhile, sterling jumped by more than a cent to reach an eight-day high against the dollar, with analysts citing a report in Germany's Handelsblatt newspaper that the European Union could offer Britain a two-year transitional Brexit deal. Sterling was up 0.31 percent at $1.3262.

2. Home Market
China's yuan pulled back against the dollar in the morning session on Thursday, while the official yuan midpoint extended gains to hit the highest since September 20. The dollar index kept its weak momentum, but mounting buying demand for forex kept pegging between yuan and the dollar index subdued. Yuan's losses is expected to be limited ahead of the incoming 19th National Congress.

Precious Metals
Gold prices edged higher to a more than two-week high on Thursday as focus shifted to U.S inflation figures due on Friday which are expected to give more clues on monetary policy. Spot gold steadied at $1,293.40 an ounce after hitting $1,297.40, the highest since Sept. 26. U.S. gold futures settled higher at $1,296.50 per ounce.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices rebounded from earlier losses, but ended lower on the day, after the Energy Department reported a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. inventories and a falloff in weekly production on Thursday. Brent crude oil settled down 69 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $56.25 a barrel while U.S. light crude ended down 70 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $50.60 a barrel. Both benchmarks have risen more than 20 percent from their lows in June as world oil markets tightened.

2.Base Metals
Copper prices hit their highest in more than a month on Thursday as optimism over the demand outlook from major consumer China fuelled buying. London Metal Exchange copper closed up 1.3 percent at $6,887 a tonne, having earlier hit its highest since Sept. 8 at $6,903. LME nickel ended at $11,395 a tonne, up 2.3 percent, having touched a three-week peak of $11,425. LME aluminium ended the day 0.8 percent higher at $2,146.50 a tonne. LME zinc finished the day up 1 percent at $3,251 a tonne, while lead closed 0.4 percent lower at $2,556 a tonne.

U.S. Treasuries
1. U.S. Bonds
U.S. Treasury prices gained on Thursday after the Treasury Department's $12 billion bond sale drew strong demand, and as investors repositioned ahead of inflation data due on Friday. The 30-year bonds sold at yields just below pre-auction levels, and the bid-to-cover ratio was 2.53, the highest since September 2015. Benchmark 10-year notes gained 5/32 in price to yield 2.327 percent, down from 2.345 percent on Wednesday.


(2017-10-13)
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